The Quinnipiac men’s basketball team will look to put its losing season in the rearview mirror tomorrow afternoon when the team travels to the Times Union Center in Albany, New York, to take on the No. 8 Rider Broncs in the first round of the MAAC Tournament.
What’s at stake?
The winner of the No. 8/No. 9 matchup will play the regular season champion Monmouth Hawks on March 4 at 7 p.m. on ESPN3. Monmouth swept its series with both Quinnipiac and Rider, but not without some late-game antics.
On Feb. 13, Monmouth trailed Rider by 14 points with 3:58 to go before the Hawks hit seven straight shots to end the game on a 17-2 run. All-MAAC First Team selection Justin Robinson scored the game-winning three with 3.8 seconds to go, cementing a 79-78 win.
The amount of parity in college basketball this year is unheard of, and the MAAC is no different. While Monmouth and No. 2 Iona are the clear front-runners, anyone can beat anyone on a given day. Aside from Rider’s near-victory, Quinnipiac trailed Monmouth by only five points with less than four minutes to go at the TD Bank Sports Center before the Hawks pulled away.
Whichever team does get a shot at Monmouth will likely face the Hawks sans senior forward Deon Jones. Jones broke his hand against Manhattan on Feb. 15 and had surgery on Feb. 18. While there is no known timetable, Jones was averaging 10.4 points and a team-high 6.2 rebounds per game before going down.
Regular season series:
The Bobcats (9-21, 6-14 MAAC) and Broncs (12-19, 8-12 MAAC) split the regular season series at a game apiece after Quinnipiac barely survived a one-man comeback effort by Rider’s Teddy Okereafor in the closing minutes at the TD Bank Sports Center. Rider then throttled the Bobcats by 23 points at the Alumni Gymnasium in Lawrenceville, New Jersey.
Quinnipiac’s 64-60 win over Rider on Jan. 4 snapped what was a four-game losing streak. The Bobcats didn’t shoot the ball particularly well—just 34.5 percent from the field—but the team was 9-19 from three-point range, thanks to a trio of shots from long distance by James Ford Jr. and Ayron Hutton. Donovan Smith scored 15 points and corralled 14 rebounds in the absence of Chaise Daniels, who missed the game due to injury.
The Bobcats took a five-point lead into the halftime break, but the offense came to a screeching halt. In the second half, Quinnipiac shot just 26.9 percent from the field, but managed to extend its lead to 58-43 with 3:19 to go.
At that point, Okereafor, a graduate transfer from Virginia Commonwealth University, took over. He scored Rider’s last 15 points and scored or assisted all of Rider’s last 19, but two free throws by Smith sealed Quinnipiac’s win. Okereafor finished with a game-high 30 points and was the only Bronc to reach double-digits in the category.
In the second matchup between the two teams, Rider used a couple of 7-0 runs at the start of each half to cruise to a 75-52 victory. The Bobcats limited Okereafor to 10 points, but Quinnipiac shot 27.7 percent from the floor, accumulated 22 fouls and committed 18 turnovers. Rider led by 10 points at halftime and never looked back.
Four different Broncs finished in double-digit points. Junior Kahlil Thomas finished with the game’s lone double-double, posting 14 points and 12 rebounds.
Playoff preview:
This matchup features one bad offensive team (Rider) and one really bad offensive team (Quinnipiac). With the game at a neutral site, expect a low-scoring, defensive battle. Quinnipiac and Rider have the ninth- and tenth-worst three point percentages in the MAAC, respectively.
Why Rider will win:
There are two things Rider does particularly well: limiting fouls and blocking shots. The Broncs finished with an 11.7 block percentage, highest in the MAAC. If Rider can keep Quinnipiac off the free throw line, which might not even be necessary considering the Bobcats were last in the MAAC this season in free throw percentage (66.8), then the Bobcats will have to rely on the ability to make jumpers.
Such a strategy plays right into Rider’s hands, as the Bobcats shot 33.8 percent from three (eighth in MAAC) and 37.5 percent from inside the arc (last in MAAC).
One of Quinnipiac’s best assets is the ability to defend the three-point line. However, that might not play a big factor because Rider doesn’t take many threes compared to the rest of the conference.
The Broncs rely much more heavily on two-point shots, where they shoot 49.9 percent as a team. Considering Quinnipiac’s defense forces very few turnovers, fouls pretty regularly, and only blocks about 10.3 percent of shots inside the arc, Rider’s strategy should be to keep attacking. Either they’ll make the basket or get to the charity stripe.
Why Quinnipiac will win:
If the Bobcats want another chance at Monmouth, the three-point line will be pivotal. Of all Quinnipiac’s point in conference play, 35.4 percent have come from beyond the arc. That number ranks third in the MAAC and the Bobcats rank 48th nationally if you include all games this season.
That strategy shouldn’t change against Rider because the Broncs were one of the worst in the MAAC in defending the three-point line. Opponents shot 36.7 percent from deep against Rider, so if the Bobcats can expose that by running screens and moving the ball, looks should open up.
In the two games against Rider earlier this year, Quinnipiac took a combined 48 three-point attempts (24 attempts per game). Even though the Bobcats don’t shoot the three well, only once since the 2010-11 season has a team gone 0-24 from three, so a few threes are bound to go in. (South Alabama missed all 24 three-point attempts against Florida State on Nov. 11, 2010.)
Prediction:
Rider wins a close one, 66-59.
